Childhood vaccination rates are declining at an alarming pace across the world, putting millions of children at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases like measles, polio, and diphtheria. This troubling trend, worsened by COVID-19 disruptions, rising vaccine hesitancy, and persistent health inequalities, threatens to undo decades of progress in global health.
Childhood Vaccination Rates Dropped Sharply During the Pandemic
A new study published in The Lancet reveals that by 2023, nearly 16 million children, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, had not received any childhood vaccinations. This marks a reversal from the last 50 years, during which vaccines prevented an estimated 150 million deaths. Since 2010, however, momentum has slowed, with nearly 100 countries experiencing a decline in measles immunization alone.
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this decline. Lockdowns, disrupted supply chains, and diverted healthcare resources severely interrupted routine immunization programs, especially in vulnerable regions.
Childhood Vaccination Rates and DTP3 Coverage Hit Historic Lows
Data from WHO and UNICEF indicate that between 2019 and 2021, global coverage of the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine (DTP3) fell from 86% to 81%. That 5-point drop translated into 25 million children left unprotected in 2021, an increase not seen in years.
Contributing factors include:
- Rising numbers of children in conflict zones
- Fragile healthcare systems in low-income countries
- A surge in misinformation and vaccine fear
- Limited access due to lockdowns and supply disruptions
Declining Childhood Vaccination Rates Could Lead to Outbreaks
In high-income countries like the United States, health experts warn that even a 10% drop in MMR vaccination could trigger over 11 million measles cases over 25 years. Rubella, polio, and diphtheria could also reemerge if coverage drops below critical thresholds.
By contrast, a modest 5% increase in vaccination rates could significantly reduce cases and save countless lives.
Vaccine Hesitancy and Misinformation Undermine Childhood Vaccination Rates
False claims about vaccine safety continue to erode public trust. In some communities, there’s a growing belief that routine childhood shots are being used to covertly administer COVID-19 vaccines. These unscientific fears are spreading fast, especially through social media and informal networks.
Parental concerns about adverse reactions, often unsupported by medical evidence, also lead to skipped vaccinations. In countries like Ghana, routine immunization coverage fell during the pandemic, leaving tens of thousands of children vulnerable.
Mass Campaign Disruptions Deepened the Vaccination Gap
Before the pandemic, mass vaccination campaigns were a key tool in eliminating outbreaks. In 2020, however, 57% of planned campaigns were canceled or delayed, causing nearly 800 million vaccine doses to go unadministered.
Though some campaigns resumed by mid-2021, many still lag behind. The resulting immunity gaps raise the risk of future disease outbreaks, especially in areas with already-low coverage.
Restoring Childhood Vaccination Rates Requires Urgent Global Action
The crisis of declining childhood vaccination rates is layered and urgent. It demands immediate, coordinated action from global health agencies, governments, and communities. Solutions include:
- Reinvesting in immunization services
- Combating vaccine misinformation
- Expanding outreach in fragile regions
- Promoting catch-up campaigns for missed vaccinations
Without bold and inclusive action, millions of children will remain unprotected, undoing decades of public health progress and leaving the world vulnerable to new waves of preventable diseases.
